OTTAWA, ON - Parliament Hill is going to be getting really busy with the return of MPs and Senators next week. After a long summer of awful polling for the Liberals, intense support for the Torys, and I don’t know what for the NDP - the upcoming sitting is expected to be a blood bath.

Question Period will be on the top of minds of parliamentarians as it will give Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre his first chance in a while to face off with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre PoilievreSomething that we should look out for when watching QP will be how Poilievre behaves. This summer, he rebranded himself. He ditched his glasses, put away the suit, and truly connected with Canadians by putting forward a more calm and collected man. While this may not be the only reason for his recent surge in the polls, it certainly helped his party reach a 98% chance of winning the most seats according to 338 Canada.

When Pierre is in the house, he does not hold back. He is strong and on the attack against Prime Minister Trudeau. But do Canadians really like that? It has been proven that the Pierre we have seen over the summer is more popular than the Pierre we see destroying Trudeau’s every move in the House.

Will he show up on the House floor in a t-shirt and jeans? Probably not. But, will he show up on the House floor looking like a different man than he was last time? Possibly.

A Trudeau Comeback?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not looking good in the polls. He is not performing well and neither is his Liberal Party of Canada.

He now has a chance to get back into the good books of Canadians. Legislation is powerful, but you also need to be careful.

Bill C-11 was a highly controversial act. The government claimed it was all about promoting Canadian content while Conservatives described it as “censorship”.

If the government was truly about Bill C-11 promoting Canadian content - how did we get to the point where Conservatives called it censorship?

The government needs to be careful with legislation. Canadians are watching and any more bad moves by the Liberal Minority Government could cost them.

Prime Minister Trudeau also has the opportunity to debate Poilievre during Question Period. Trudeau is a strong campaigner and knows how to run an election campaign. This skill could certainly benefit him in the House.

But again, Canadians are watching.

Trudeau usually attends Question Period Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The Prime Minister is already booked next Tuesday and Wednesday in New York for the UN General Assembly.

Strong Singh? Quiet Singh?

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is another person to watch when Parliament returns.

His party is currently in a supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals where the NDP promises to keep the government in power until 2025 as long as the Liberals commit to passing key NDP proposals like dental care.

Jagmeet Singh has drew up a lot of attention and is one of the most powerful people in the Canadian Government. He can decide whether or not the Government survives.

Housing and Affordability on the Table

Prime Minister Trudeau wrapped up his Liberal Caucus Retreat in London, ON with new housing policies.

A policy that stood out was the government’s plan to remove the GST on rental housing construction. The government also announced the first movement in their “Housing Accelerator Fund”. The government is funding London, ON with $74 million to build 2,000 new homes in three years.

The program was first announced in their 2021 election platform and was put in place through the government’s 2022 budget.

The government also invited the CEOs of Loblaw, Sobeys, Metro, Costco, and Walmart to meet with them. This comes as grocery prices remain high.

According to CBC News, Trudeau is giving chains until Thanksgiving to stabilize grocery prices or else Ottawa will take action.

The Prime Minister did threaten tax measures if necessary.

We could also see the government make changes to the Competition Act.
To read the CBC News story on this ➡️ https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/government-grocery-store-meeting-ottawa-food-prices-1.6967978

Bail Reform and Guns
Prime Minister Trudeau was rumoured to be expected to prorogue parliament which would scrap all government legislation off the order paper. If he did so, that would mean the government’s key firearm legislation and bail-reform bill would lose progress.

Trudeau didn’t prorogue parliament and the order paper stayed still.

Bill C-21, the controversial firearm legislation, is being considered in the Senate after over a year of being stuck in the House.

Trudeau’s bail-reform legislation is also up for debate on day one. The legislation made very little to no progress since it was introduced last spring.

Premiers from across the country are calling for bail-reform and it will be interesting to see how the parties debate the bill.

Opposition on the Attack

The upcoming sitting will almost certainly feature the opposition on the attack.

It also looks like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh are up on the private members ballot.

Private Members Business is when the House considers bills or motions by MPs who are not in cabinet.

Poilievre is up soon on the list but has nothing currently under his name. It is very likely for that to change soon as Poilievre announced he intends to table legislation focused on housing called the “Building Homes, Not Bureaucracy Act”.

According to the Conservative Party of Canada’s website, the bill will ;

• Require big, unaffordable cities to build more homes and speed up the rate at which they build homes every year to meet our housing targets. Cities must increase the number of homes built by 15% each year and then 15% on top of the previous target every single year (it compounds). If targets are missed, cities will have to catch up in the following years and build even more homes, or a percentage of their federal funding will be withheld, equivalent to the percentage they missed their target by. Municipalities can be added if the region that they are a part of meets these criteria.  
• Reward big cities that are removing gatekeepers and getting homes built by providing a building bonus for municipalities that exceed a 15% increase in housing completions, proportional to the degree to which they exceed this target. 
• Withhold transit and infrastructure funding from cities until sufficient high-density housing around transit stations is built and occupied. Cities will not receive money for transit until there are keys-in-doors.  
• Impose a NIMBY penalty on big city gatekeepers for egregious cases of NIMBYism. We will empower Canadians to file complaints about NIMBYism with the federal infrastructure department. When complaints are legitimate, we will withhold infrastructure and transit dollars until cities allow homes to be built. 
• Provide a “Super Bonus” to any municipality that has greatly exceeded its housing targets.  
• Cut the bonuses and salaries, and if needed, fire the gatekeepers at CMHC if they are unable to speed up approval of applications for housing programs to an average of 60 days. 
• Remove GST on the building of any new homes with rental prices below market value. This will be funded using dollars from the failed Liberal Housing Accelerator fund. 
• Within a year and a half of this law passing, list 15 percent of the federal government’s 37,000 buildings and all appropriate federal land to be turned into homes people can afford. 
  
  

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is also on the ballot for the upcoming sitting.

He has a motion under his name but is also going to, according to CTV News, table legislation called “Lowering Prices for Canadians Act”.

The CTV News article says, “The bill seeks to make changes to Canada's Competition Act in three main ways, the source said:

• Allowing the Competition Bureau to crack down on "price gouging" with increased fines aligned with those in place in the EU and Australia, for practices such as price-fixing and overcharging;
• Providing the agency more tools to prevent corporate mergers in order to "better protect" consumers; and
• Making it easier for the Competition Bureau to go after companies who engage in anti-competitive tactics by lowering the threshold from having to demonstrate intent in engaging in bad corporate behaviour, to demonstrating the impact of that action on consumers or the sector.”
  
  

Parliament returns Monday​
The House of Commons and Senate of Canada are set to return Monday, September 18th, 2023.

All eyes will be watching the new Trudeau cabinet and if their performance in the House will improve the Liberal’s polling numbers.

The Conservative Party of Canada just wrapped up their enthusiastic “common-sense” convention where the party adopted some controversial policies and celebrated high-polling numbers.

According to 338 Canada’s latest federal projections, Conservatives are at a 98% chance of winning the most seats. The party is in majority territory while Prime Minister Trudeau’s support is falling.

The Liberal Party is falling in the polls and many say it is caused by Trudeau’s disapproval by Canadians. It raises many questions of whether or not Trudeau could step down in order to prevent a Conservative victory in the next election (scheduled for 2025).

There certainly is enough time for the Liberals to hold a leadership race and find a new leader who can effectivley take on Poilievre and his Conservative party. There are many options within the Liberal Party including Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and many other senior Liberals.

Prime Minister Trudeau may be holding back the Liberals and that is a good thing for the Torys.

Many anti-Trudeau supporters would just love to see him resign tomorrow but it may not benefit them entirely.

With Trudeau struggling, Conservatives are performing well. But if Chrystia Freeland took over, Conservatives would have to face someone new and their progress could be lost.

So, it raises the question - does Poilievre and the Conservatives want Trudeau to resign or not?
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Many may think “anybody but Trudeau”, but if many Canadians want a new government - having Trudeau ride out the remainder of his term could be their best bet.

OTTAWA - The Trudeau Government recently wrapped up their cabinet retreat in the maritimes. Despite labeling the Housing Crisis as a top priority, no new solutions were announced.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre called on the government to recall the House to address the housing crisis. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh mentioned his party is prepared to return to the House at any time to discuss the Housing Crisis.

It raises questions on whether the government is really prioritizing the Housing Crisis or if they are content to wait until September 18th when the House is set to return.

Political Watchdog reached out to the Office of the Government House Leader for comment on this matter and the Government House Leader’s Director of Communications provided the following, “The House of Commons will resume sitting as scheduled on Sept 18 and the government will proceed with an ambitious agenda.”

Political Watchdog also reached out to the Office of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities Minister Sean Fraser but no response was received before the deadline provided.

Minister Fraser tweeted on Wednesday in response to Poilievre’s calls for the recall of the House mentioning, “Political stunts can wait. In the meantime we have work to do.”

EASTERN ONTARIO - A tentative agreement has reportedly been reached between Student Transportation of Eastern Ontario (STEO) and Eastern Ontario Bus Operators Association (EOBOA).

STEO previously warned that there may be transportation disruptions in the fall because they did not reach an agreement for September with bus operators.

Schools in UCDSB and CDSBEO planned to welcome students on September 5th despite potential intense transportation shortages. STEO issued an emergency tender to bring in other bus companies to work the routes.

The exact details of this tentative agreement have not yet been released.

Frank Healey, spokesperson for the bus operators and President of Healey Transportation was quoted in the STEO news release saying, “This has been a long process, but I know our drivers will be happy they will be out on the first day of school, greeting familiar faces and playing such an important role for kids across our communities. I want to thank STEO for continuing to work with us to reach an agreement, and I look forward to another four years of working together for students and their families.”
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Janet Murray from STEO was also quoted saying, “We are delighted to have reached an agreement with the school bus companies and to continue the positive relationships we have built over many years, for the foreseeable future. Throughout this process I know the school bus companies, our team, and the school boards have done everything possible to prioritize the needs of students and their families, and I am thrilled to be able to share this news with the families we serve.”

Ontario has been the hot spot for labour disputes in the education sector this past year. Last fall, education support staff walked-off the job after they failed to reach an agreement with Ford Government. The Ford Government tabled back-to-work legislation that deemed the strike “illegal” while also forcing a contract on education workers. The government eventually repealed the legislation and education workers came to an agreement with the Ford Government weeks later.

Teachers’ unions also entered negotiations with the Ford Government. After a year of negotiations, OECTA (Catholic teachers union), ETFO (elementary teachers union), and OSSTF (secondary school teachers union) have all announced plans to hold strike votes in the fall. These unions took similar job action in 2020.
We’ve also just learned that bus companies in Eastern Ontario have not yet came to an agreement with STEO. (STEO negotiates annual service contracts with bus companies)

STEO released information today warning of disruptions for student transportation in September. STEO included that themselves and bus companies are “very far apart”.

The total compensation value of the school bus operators’ position far exceeds funding available to school boards for transportation.
- STEO Letter to Parents

CDSBEO and UCDSB schools would be affected by these disruptions.

UCDSB Chair of the Board John McAllister said, “With approximately 70 per cent of our students needing transportation, no buses mean many families will struggle to get their children to school. This is unfair to families, staff and most of all – our students. The bus operators have outlined demands to STEO that far exceed the available funding provided to school boards by the Ministry of Education. We understand that STEO and the bus companies are still far apart, but we hope the bus companies will commit to showing up on the first day of school for our students, just like we are.”

CDSBEO also responded to comment saying, “Student Transportation of Eastern Ontario (STEO) is responsible to arrange transportation for our students. We hope for a positive resolution as soon as possible that will result in regular transportation for the upcoming school year for our students and their families. CDSBEO will continue to monitor the situation closely.”

Whether or not students will appear in class on the first day of school will be up to families and even school boards. At this time, both boards have also said that all schools plan to be open and welcoming students on the first day of school.

But is that possible?

Many students rely on bus transportation to get to school and many have no other option. If there is no bus transportation in September, students would have to find other ways to get to school.

Some rural schools could have little to no attendance in September if transportation is not available.

This is where the government could come in. Ontario’s Education Minister Stephen Lecce has been vocal about keeping kids in school uninterrupted so students can catch up on learning after many school closures during the pandemic.

In fact, when education workers went on strike in the fall of 2022, he tabled legislation with goals to end the strike and keep kids in class.

The question should be - will the Ford Government intervene to ensure every student gets to school?
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September brings anxiety for parents and studentsWith the start of school approaching, families are unsure of what it will bring. With potential strikes by education unions and potentially intense transportation shortages, it is almost impossible for Ontarians to know what is ahead.